I have asked you (my clients) many times if you want to know my opinion on why interest rates and house price are as they are.The clear answer is… NO ! What we do want from you – is what should we do…Let me go back a bit first.Every decade has had a defining moment:The 70’s – oil price inflation, hi
The Council of Social Services (ACOSS) always makes a submission to the budget. This year it notes that the top 10% of Australians have over $5.2 million in net wealth and that the gap between the top 10% and those below is somehow inherently wrong.It also notes that the top 10% have made their weal
A report from a government committee has suggested that Australian Banks be forced to issue “Tracker Mortgages” (Aust Financial Review 27 March 2024).Australian banks have unsurprisingly pushed back.A “tracker mortgage” supposedly “tracks” the Reserve Bank cash rate so that your home loan rate remai
I once wrote an article titled “A funny thing happened on the way to the cemetery”.When the pension was conceived, average life expectancy was 62. Retirement age was 65.The pension was predicated on the assumption that most would never receive it.Someone born in 1950 had a life expectancy of 62.But
How best to deal with the worry of inter- generational issues…?In my email last week, I posed the question of how best to prepare for your own future…One client asked how they could help their (young) children – not yet born – because of their concerns about what the housing market would look like f
I spent time with long term clients and even longer friends over the weekend.Here was one part of the conversation – and I’d like you to continue it, along any pathway you choose… more of that later.“How much do I need to live comfortably in later life?”Average weekly earnings have just hit $100kpaH
There are things that can be taken as almost certain this year – so let’s plan for them.On the money supply side:At some stage this year the Reserve Bank will start to reduce rates.When rates fall by 0.25% it is almost certain that banks will act with their usual pattern and cut by 0.25% for new cli
This time WHY matters.The 3-year bond rate in the US is 5.30%, the 10-year bond rate 4.65%.The 3-year bond rate in Aust is 4.35%, the 10-year bond rate is 4.75%.Banks BORROW to lend to you at the 3-year bond rate (among many other sources) – so money is COSTING the banks 4.35%They can also borrow (o
“The balance of risks now favour the prospect that the RBA is now on hold” – Bill Evans (The Australian Wed 2nd Aug 2023)I predicted quite some time ago that the “peak” of this interest rate cycle would be 6% (to you) and that you should plan around that – and that appears to be correct.What is the
Should it surprise us that 100% of economists on Monday became only 70% of economists by Wednesday?I will carefully analyse what the Reserve Bank board says as well as Bill Evans.I think it is possible that with this Reserve Bank board undergoing significant change by September that they wanted to f
It is with a reasonable degree of confidence that I can say that interest rates have peaked (Bill Evans: The Weekend Australian: Sat 29th Apr: page 30).At the start of this cycle, I suggested that you plan for a peak of 5.5% (and more recently 6% just to cover a worst case).Interest rates, to you, h
I am always open to opportunities with new lenders for my new to bank clients.Under BID (Best Interest Duty) my obligations are clear – and they are obligations on me personally.Banks have absolutely no obligations under BID.This means that in the main – our interests do not align.There is one place
With the Reserve Bank likely lifting rates later today – how best to plan ahead.I asked two clients recently if they were interested in hearing why rates are being lifted – and their answer could not have been clearer … “no – we read your emails because you tell us how to plan”The so-called experts
Covid came along and no government in the world quite knew how to respond… they planned for the worst.We were all locked up.While they developed a vaccine.Which meant businesses and people lives were about to be financially destroyed.Government:Created Job Keeper to give people income.While keeping
I cannot count the number of times in my 25 years of mortgage broking I have heard the “I’m waiting for the crash” reason for delaying a buying decision.First – EVERY buyer (me included) hopes for property to be “down” 5 minutes before they buy and then “up” 5 minutes after they have bought.Here is
Fortnightly …. To Be or Not to Be ….I can tell from the questions I am being asked that rates are starting to have an effect and people are being not only more careful with their money but also trying to create additional value.Tell me who “hasn’t” heard that paying a loan fortnightly shortens the l
Inflation was slightly higher in December than expected. Inflation kicked off with oil price shocks caused by the Russia/Ukraine conflict, so rate rises did feel a “bit unfair” to many.However, in December one of the single biggest contributors was travel and holidays. After two years of disappointm
Amidst all the bad news of 2022 comes some good news at last.It is just possible that the rate of inflation in Australia has peaked (in October) earlier than predicted by economists (The Australian 1 Dec 2022: Robert Gottliebsen).(By the way – what do you call 100 economists in a room?… a vacuum!)If
It wasn’t long ago there was talk of the Goldilocks Economy – not too hot, not too cold.It was juuuuust right.Unemployment around 4%.Inflation around 2%.Wages growth around 2%.But as in the story – the Three Bears came home…Just who are these Three Bears at the moment?The first bear was called Covid
What caused the Reserve Bank to move away from its previously stated plans?Namely… they were not going to move until:Inflation was comfortably in the 2%-3% range.Wages growth was above 3%.The reasons that threw the Reserve Bank off course were simple:Russia invaded Ukraine and has caused a global di
At the April Reserve Bank meeting the governor said he would:Wait for the release of inflation figures – which came out last week (April 27th ) at 3.4%.Wait for the release of employment / wage figures on May 15th.I listen carefully to Bill Evans – Westpac Chief Economist, who concurs, he also liste
I am writing again – to let you know how I think the interest rate scenario will unfold in 2022 and how to prepare together. We each have roles.The pieces are falling into place for the Reserve Bank to start to lift the cash rate.Inflation between 2% and 3% – is already in place.Unemployment under 4
House price rose by 25% in 2021 driven exclusively byLow interest rates,The need for more space to accommodate working from home.There was a segment of the property market that missed this – inner city units – which rose by only 8%.Unit blocks close to the city were the opposite of what the market w
How many times could you say that you went to a business seminar, and it changed your life – and that it is still your daily focus 20 years laterRon Kaufman, Singapore: 2001 – Ron Kaufman is who Singapore Airlines sought out in 1990 help them achieve their goal – “Service Even Other Airlines Talk Ab
